When I asked new subscribers what brought them here, a surprising number said the same thing: they're worried about AI.
Some are watching it change their own jobs. Some are parents wondering what to tell their kids. Either way, it's clearly on a lot of minds, so I want to walk through what the data actually says, and what I see from the job site.
What's actually happening
The old story about automation was that robots would come for the factory floor and leave the office alone. That story is flipping.
This year, for the first time on record, AI was the reason U.S. employers cited most often for layoffs four months in a row, according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. FinanceBuzz
The hit is landing hardest at the entry level. A Stanford study of ADP payroll data found a 13% relative drop in employment for 22-to-25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs since late 2022, while older workers in those same roles held steady or grew. AI2Work
I want to be fair about the other side, too. Anthropic's March 2026 research found no broad rise in unemployment among highly exposed workers — but it did find signs that hiring of younger workers in those fields has slowed. And some companies are almost certainly using AI as cover for ordinary budget cuts, which inflates the headline numbers.
So this isn't a cliff. It's a door closing slowly and it's the door at the bottom of the corporate ladder. That's the one every career starts through.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the economy
Now look at the trades.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects electrician employment to grow 9% from 2025 to 2035, much faster than average, with about 72,700 openings a year. HVAC mechanics and installers are projected to grow 8%, with roughly 40,100 openings a year through 2034. U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsFacilities Dive
And here's the part I find almost funny. One of the reasons BLS gives for electrician demand is the growth of AI and the data centers that power it, which are expected to push electricity demand higher.
The technology putting pressure on office jobs needs more electricians to run.
What I see from my side
Last month my painting company did six jobs. Not one piece of that work could be done from a data center. Somebody had to walk the house, prep the walls, and cut the lines.
Here's what I think most people miss, though. AI isn't a threat to a small trade business. For the owner, it's closer to a tailwind. The office side of a service company (estimates, scheduling, follow-up emails, marketing copy) is exactly the kind of work these tools make faster and cheaper. The field side isn't going anywhere.
That combination is rare. The part of the business that costs you overhead gets cheaper, and the part that earns the money stays protected.
The honest caveats
Nothing is AI-proof forever. Robotics will keep improving. And the same labor shortage that protects trade work makes it harder to find good crews — that's the single biggest headache in my business.
I'm also not telling anyone to quit their job over a headline. Plenty of office careers will be fine, and some will get better.
But I'd encourage you to ask one question about your own work: what does it actually depend on? If the honest answer is "building excel models," that's worth thinking about while you still get to choose your timing.
I left engineering in 2021 because I wanted ownership. Five years later, it also looks like a bet on something more durable than I realized.
Zac
P.S. If this was useful, forward it to someone. Also, I’d be curious to know, are you worried about AI impacting your career?